วันพุธที่ 27 พฤษภาคม พ.ศ. 2552

Kim Eng Todays Stock Market Report Recommends Speculative Buy BCP

Bangchak Petroleum (BCP) - SPECULATIVE BUY

Price (Bt) 13.90
Target (Bt) 20.20
Set Index 561.41

Revised 2009 profit up by 27% leads new target price to stand at Bt20.20

Upgraded expected profit by 27% to Bt3,764mn (EPS Bt3.36) from

today's stock market report ticker
hedging contracts at high prices
After an analyst’s meeting, we now see many positive aspects of BCP for the rest of this year.
The refinery margin is increasing by $2-3/barrel coming from the commercial operations of the Product
Quality Improvement (PQI) project, which started this month. In addition, the 46% gross refining margin
(GRM) hedging, each quarter, will guarantee a GRM of not less than $9/barrel per quarter. With the first
quarter earnings representing 54% of our forecast and the normalised profit trend in the 2Q09 is around
Bt1.5-1.6mn (excluding profit from any inventory gain from the rising crude price average $41/barrel in
1Q09 to $54/barrel at present), we have adjusted our 2009 earnings projection up by 27% to Bt3,764mn (EPS Bt3.36) and the expected dividend to Bt1.20 representing a high dividend yield of 8.6%. With a PER of 6x, our target price is revised up to Bt20.20, while the current PER is 4.1x, the lowest in the refinery sector with a 45% upside. Due to our new target price, we thus are maintaining our Speculative Buy rating on BCP.

Share still lags the refinery sector
BCP rose just 19% in the past month, while ESSO, IRPC, PTTAR, TOP rocketed by 38%, 34%, 33%, 28%,
respectively. We believe BCP shares will continue to lag, despite the improvements in the BCP refinery
complex. If the share price moves along with the sector, the trading price would become Bt15.30.

BCP-DR1 should be higher than BCP as the Put Option locks in embedded value at Bt13
From the current BCP underlying asset at Bt13.90 per share, we expect the put option embedded in
BCP-DR1 (repurchased at Bt13 in February, 2014) and using the Black & Scholes model, the embedded value of
the option should be Bt1.34 and thus BCP-DR1 should be Bt15.20. Thus, the current BCP-DR1 price does not
reflect the theoretical price. We believe that a speculative buy on BCP-DR1 will make a good return. If BCP
rises to Bt16.80, the put option price will be close to 0, which will make a balance between the BCP price
and the BCP-DR1 price.

Earnings summary
Year End Dec 31 2007 2008 2009F 2010F 2011F
Sales (Btmn) 94,979 129,042 107,872 118,052 121,594
EBITDA (Btmn) 4,791 1,952 6,189 5,408 5,552
Normalised earnings (Btmn) 2,410 614 2,961 2,537 2,708
Earnings (Btmn) 1,764 -750 3,764 2,537 2,708
EPS (Bt) 1.58 -0.67 3.36 2.27 2.42
PER (x) 8.8 N.A. 4.1 6.1 5.7
EV/EBITDA (x) 4.1 14.8 4.2 4.7 4.3
Free cash flow (Btmn) 5,621 -9,129 3,965 1,792 2,656
CF/share (Bt) 3.9 -1.2 4.2 2.6 3.4
BVPS (Bt) 19 17.6 19.8 21.1 22.7
P/BV (x) 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6
DPS (Bt) 0.3 0.5 1.2 0.9 0.9
Dividend yield (%) 2.20% 3.60% 8.60% 6.50% 6.50%
Net debt/equity (x) 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3
ROA (%) 4% -2% 9% 6% 6%
ROE (%) 9% -4% 18% 11% 11%
Source : Company reports and KELIVE Research estimates.

Expected BCP-DR1 at Bt15.20, if BCP reaches Bt13.90
The BCP-DR1 assurance price is Bt13 on 2 February 2014 (a type of put option). The embedded value
of the put option in BCP-DR1, using the Black-Scholes-Merton model, with the following assumptions:
- Risk-Free rate* (rf) = 2.49% (5-year government bonds)
- 1 year historical volatility** = 38.5%
- Expected dividend yield = 0% as both BCP and BCP-DR1 have dividend rights
- Time-to-maturity = 4.71 years (expiration Feb 2, 2014)
- Exercise price = Bt13

By Kim Eng Securities (Thailand) Company Limited on May 21, 2009

today's stock market report ticker
USA Top Cities

San Jose California ,Scottsdale Arizona,Reno Nevada,Kansas City Missouri ,Oakland California,Denver Colorado,Long Beach California ,Los Angeles California,Tucson Arizona,St. Paul Minnesota ,Honolulu Hawaii,Charlotte North Carolina ,Santa Ana California ,Detroit Michigan,Oklahoma City Oklahoma ,Babylon New York ,San Diego ,Miami Florida,Lexington-Fayette Kentucky,Fort Wayne Indiana ,Riverside California,Omaha Nebraska,Raleigh North Carolina ,Houston Texas ,Islip New York ,Pittsburgh Pennsylvania,Glendale Arizona,Sacramento California,Columbus Ohio,Philadelphia Pennsylvania ,Dallas Texas ,Tampa Florida,Tulsa Oklahoma,Orlando Florida,Minneapolis Minnesota,El Paso Texas ,Seattle Washington,Colorado Springs Colorado ,St. Petersburg Florida ,Chula Vista California ,Arlington Texas ,Cleveland Ohio,Baton Rouge Louisiana ,Greensboro North Carolina ,North Hempstead New York,Las Vegas Nevada ,Washington District of Columbia,Garland Texas,Anaheim California,Mesa Arizona,Fresno California,Jersey City New Jersey,New Orleans Louisiana ,Fort Worth Texas ,Rochester New York ,Lubbock Texas,Phoenix Arizona ,Indianapolis Indiana,Durham North Carolina ,Stockton California,Brookhaven New York ,Hialeah Florida,Aurora Colorado,Boston Massachusetts,Laredo Texas,Modesto California,Milwaukee Wisconsin,Nashville-Davidson Tennessee,Memphis Tennessee,Chicago Illinois ,Birmingham Alabama,Akron Ohio,New York New york,San Antonio Texas,Norfolk Virginia,Henderson Nevada,Plano Texas,Madison Wisconsin,Portland Oregon ,St. Louis Missouri ,Virginia Beach Virginia ,Chesapeake Virginia,Austin Texas,Toledo Ohio,Buffalo New York ,Hempstead New York ,Newark New Jersey ,Anchorage Alaska,Lincoln Nebraska,Cincinnati Ohio,San Francisco California ,Corpus Christi Texas ,Chandler Arizona,Oyster Bay New York,Wichita Kansas ,Bakersfield California,Baltimore Maryland,Atlanta Georgia,Albuquerque New Mexico ,Jacksonville Florida

ไม่มีความคิดเห็น:

แสดงความคิดเห็น